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Unionistas II vs Cristo Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Unionistas II
Unionistas II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cristo Atlético
Cristo Atlético
1/3/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 16Reina Sofia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Unionistas II28%
×Draw28%
Cristo Atlético43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unionistas II
0.97
Cristo Atlético
1.27

Cristo Atlético creates 31% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 80 away

creates per match

Unionistas II
1.00
Cristo Atlético
1.36

allows per match

Unionistas II
1.18
Cristo Atlético
0.95

finishing

Unionistas II+0.00on par
Cristo Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unionistas II ↓

Cristo Atlético →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Unionistas II or draw
57%
Unionistas II or Cristo Atlético
72%
Draw or Cristo Atlético
72%

Winning margin

Unionistas II wins by 2+
10%
Cristo Atlético wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Unionistas II 1+ goals
62%
Unionistas II 2+ goals
25%
Unionistas II 3+ goals
7%
Cristo Atlético 1+ goals
72%
Cristo Atlético 2+ goals
36%
Cristo Atlético 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Unionistas II (draw refunded)
40%
Cristo Atlético (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unionistas II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Cristo Atlético away — creates 1.36, concedes 0.95 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unionistas II attack 1.00 + Cristo Atlético defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.97

Cristo Atlético attack 1.36 + Unionistas II defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Unionistas II scores more
28%
level
28%
Cristo Atlético scores more
43%

Cristo Atlético at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cristo Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Unionistas II 0 – 0 Cristo Atlético

Unionistas II and Cristo Atlético drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on January 3, 2026.

The match was played at Reina Sofia.