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Unionistas de Salamanca vs SD Logroñés — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Unionistas de Salamanca
Unionistas de Salamanca
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
SD Logroñés
SD Logroñés
10/23/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 9Campo de Futbol Reina Sofía

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Unionistas de Salamanca53%
×Draw27%
SD Logroñés20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unionistas de Salamanca
1.46
SD Logroñés
0.79

Unionistas de Salamanca creates 85% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 38 away

creates per match

Unionistas de Salamanca
1.44
SD Logroñés
0.79

allows per match

Unionistas de Salamanca
0.78
SD Logroñés
1.47

finishing

Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par
SD Logroñés+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unionistas de Salamanca ↓

SD Logroñés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Unionistas de Salamanca or draw
80%
Unionistas de Salamanca or SD Logroñés
73%
Draw or SD Logroñés
47%

Winning margin

Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+
27%
SD Logroñés wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals
77%
Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals
43%
Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals
18%
SD Logroñés 1+ goals
55%
SD Logroñés 2+ goals
19%
SD Logroñés 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)
72%
SD Logroñés (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unionistas de Salamanca at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.78 · 107 matches

SD Logroñés away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.47 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 1.44 + SD Logroñés defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.46

SD Logroñés attack 0.79 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Unionistas de Salamanca scores more
53%
level
27%
SD Logroñés scores more
20%

Unionistas de Salamanca at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Unionistas de Salamanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Unionistas de Salamanca 3–3 SD Logroñés

Unionistas de Salamanca and SD Logroñés drew 3-3 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 23, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de Futbol Reina Sofía in Salamanca.