Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Unionistas de Salamanca vs San Fernando CD — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Unionistas de Salamanca
Unionistas de Salamanca
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
San Fernando CD
San Fernando CD
10/16/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Campo de Futbol Reina Sofía

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Unionistas de Salamanca49%
×Draw28%
San Fernando CD23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unionistas de Salamanca
1.38
San Fernando CD
0.86

Unionistas de Salamanca creates 60% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 19 away

creates per match

Unionistas de Salamanca
1.44
San Fernando CD
0.95

allows per match

Unionistas de Salamanca
0.78
San Fernando CD
1.32

finishing

Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par
San Fernando CD+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unionistas de Salamanca ↓

San Fernando CD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Unionistas de Salamanca or draw
77%
Unionistas de Salamanca or San Fernando CD
72%
Draw or San Fernando CD
51%

Winning margin

Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+
24%
San Fernando CD wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals
75%
Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals
40%
Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals
16%
San Fernando CD 1+ goals
58%
San Fernando CD 2+ goals
21%
San Fernando CD 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)
68%
San Fernando CD (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unionistas de Salamanca at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.78 · 107 matches

San Fernando CD away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 1.44 + San Fernando CD defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.38

San Fernando CD attack 0.95 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Unionistas de Salamanca scores more
49%
level
28%
San Fernando CD scores more
23%

Unionistas de Salamanca at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Unionistas de Salamanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Unionistas de Salamanca 1–1 San Fernando CD

Unionistas de Salamanca and San Fernando CD drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 16, 2022.

The match was played at Campo de Futbol Reina Sofía in Salamanca.