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Unionistas de Salamanca vs Real Avilés — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Unionistas de Salamanca
Unionistas de Salamanca
Preview
16:00
Real Avilés
Real Avilés
2/14/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 24Reina Sofia
47%
Unionistas de Salamanca
model favours
47%24%29%

Real Avilés win just 10% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Unionistas de Salamanca47%
×Draw24%
Real Avilés29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unionistas de Salamanca
1.72
Real Avilés
1.31

Unionistas de Salamanca creates 31% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 19 away

creates per match

Unionistas de Salamanca
1.44
Real Avilés
1.84

allows per match

Unionistas de Salamanca
0.78
Real Avilés
2.00

finishing

Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par
Real Avilés+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unionistas de Salamanca ↓

Real Avilés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Unionistas de Salamanca or draw
71%
Unionistas de Salamanca or Real Avilés
76%
Draw or Real Avilés
53%

Winning margin

Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+
25%
Real Avilés wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals
82%
Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals
51%
Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals
25%
Real Avilés 1+ goals
73%
Real Avilés 2+ goals
38%
Real Avilés 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)
62%
Real Avilés (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unionistas de Salamanca at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.78 · 107 matches

Real Avilés away — creates 1.84, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 1.44 + Real Avilés defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.72

Real Avilés attack 1.84 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Unionistas de Salamanca scores more
47%
level
24%
Real Avilés scores more
29%

Unionistas de Salamanca at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Unionistas de Salamanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Salamanca
WDWLD
Avilés
DLLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Unionistas de Salamanca face Real Avilés (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 returns with Unionistas de Salamanca hosting Real Avilés. Match starts February 14, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Unionistas de Salamanca host Real Avilés at Reina Sofia.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.