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Real Avilés vs Unionistas de Salamanca — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Real Avilés
Real Avilés
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Unionistas de Salamanca
Unionistas de Salamanca
4/18/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 33Estadio Roman Suarez Puerta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Real Avilés35%
×Draw28%
Unionistas de Salamanca38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Avilés
1.16
Unionistas de Salamanca
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 106 away

creates per match

Real Avilés
1.05
Unionistas de Salamanca
0.91

allows per match

Real Avilés
1.53
Unionistas de Salamanca
1.27

finishing

Real Avilés+0.00on par
Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Avilés ↓

Unionistas de Salamanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Real Avilés or draw
62%
Real Avilés or Unionistas de Salamanca
72%
Draw or Unionistas de Salamanca
65%

Winning margin

Real Avilés wins by 2+
14%
Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Real Avilés 1+ goals
69%
Real Avilés 2+ goals
32%
Real Avilés 3+ goals
11%
Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals
70%
Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals
34%
Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Real Avilés (draw refunded)
48%
Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Avilés at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Unionistas de Salamanca away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.27 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Avilés attack 1.05 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.16

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 0.91 + Real Avilés defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Real Avilés scores more
35%
level
28%
Unionistas de Salamanca scores more
38%

Unionistas de Salamanca at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Unionistas de Salamanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Avilés vs Unionistas de Salamanca

Real Avilés and Unionistas de Salamanca drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 18, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Roman Suarez Puerta in Avilés.