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Unionistas de Salamanca vs Rayo Majadahonda — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Unionistas de Salamanca
Unionistas de Salamanca
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Rayo Majadahonda
Rayo Majadahonda
10/1/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 6Campo de Futbol Reina Sofía

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Unionistas de Salamanca51%
×Draw27%
Rayo Majadahonda23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unionistas de Salamanca
1.45
Rayo Majadahonda
0.87

Unionistas de Salamanca creates 67% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 72 away

creates per match

Unionistas de Salamanca
1.44
Rayo Majadahonda
0.96

allows per match

Unionistas de Salamanca
0.78
Rayo Majadahonda
1.46

finishing

Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par
Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unionistas de Salamanca ↓

Rayo Majadahonda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Unionistas de Salamanca or draw
77%
Unionistas de Salamanca or Rayo Majadahonda
73%
Draw or Rayo Majadahonda
49%

Winning margin

Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+
25%
Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals
77%
Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals
42%
Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals
18%
Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals
58%
Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals
22%
Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)
69%
Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unionistas de Salamanca at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.78 · 107 matches

Rayo Majadahonda away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.46 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 1.44 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.45

Rayo Majadahonda attack 0.96 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Unionistas de Salamanca scores more
51%
level
27%
Rayo Majadahonda scores more
23%

Unionistas de Salamanca at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Unionistas de Salamanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Unionistas de Salamanca 2 – 1 Rayo Majadahonda

Unionistas de Salamanca beat Rayo Majadahonda 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Campo de Futbol Reina Sofía in Salamanca.