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Unionistas de Salamanca vs Leioa — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Unionistas de Salamanca
Unionistas de Salamanca
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Leioa
Leioa
1/5/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 19Pistas del Helmántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Unionistas de Salamanca51%
×Draw25%
Leioa24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unionistas de Salamanca
1.65
Leioa
1.05

Unionistas de Salamanca creates 57% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 28 away

creates per match

Unionistas de Salamanca
1.47
Leioa
0.64

allows per match

Unionistas de Salamanca
1.47
Leioa
1.82

finishing

Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par
Leioa+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unionistas de Salamanca ↓

Leioa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Unionistas de Salamanca or draw
76%
Unionistas de Salamanca or Leioa
75%
Draw or Leioa
49%

Winning margin

Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+
27%
Leioa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals
81%
Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals
49%
Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals
23%
Leioa 1+ goals
65%
Leioa 2+ goals
28%
Leioa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)
68%
Leioa (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unionistas de Salamanca at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Leioa away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.82 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 1.47 + Leioa defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.65

Leioa attack 0.64 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Unionistas de Salamanca scores more
51%
level
25%
Leioa scores more
24%

Unionistas de Salamanca at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Unionistas de Salamanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Unionistas de Salamanca 1–1 Leioa

Unionistas de Salamanca and Leioa drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 5, 2020.

The match was played at Pistas del Helmántico in Salamanca.