Unionistas de Salamanca 2–1 Guijuelo

Unionistas de Salamanca

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Guijuelo

Álvaro Romero 60'

Juan Góngora 50' (pen)

Luis Lara 19'

12/14/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 17Pistas del Helmántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Unionistas de Salamanca43%

×Draw27%

Guijuelo30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unionistas de SalamancaExpected goals in this matchGuijuelo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.09

Unionistas de Salamanca

1.38

Guijuelo

1.09

Unionistas de Salamanca creates 27% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 14 away

1.47

creates per match

0.71

1.47

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Unionistas de Salamanca

1.47

Guijuelo

0.71

allows per match

Unionistas de Salamanca

1.47

Guijuelo

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par

Guijuelo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unionistas de Salamanca ↓

Guijuelo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Unionistas de Salamanca or draw

70%

Unionistas de Salamanca or Guijuelo

73%

Draw or Guijuelo

57%

Winning margin

Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+

21%

Guijuelo wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals

75%

Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals

40%

Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals

16%

Guijuelo 1+ goals

66%

Guijuelo 2+ goals

30%

Guijuelo 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)

59%

Guijuelo (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unionistas de Salamanca at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Guijuelo away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 1.47 + Guijuelo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.38

Guijuelo attack 0.71 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Unionistas de Salamanca scores more

43%

level

27%

Guijuelo scores more

30%

Unionistas de Salamanca at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Unionistas de Salamanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

Luis Lara

50'

Juan GóngoraPenalty

55'

Javi Navas← Álvaro Santos

57'

Pepe Carmona← Y. Fékir

60'

Álvaro Romero

64'

Iván Garrido← David Grande

66'

D. Sikorski← A. Bogdan

79'

E. Bolaños← Luis Lara

86'

Ayoze Placeres← Guille Andrés

Unionistas

Guijuelo

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Jabi Luaces

55'▲Javi Navas←▼Álvaro Santos

64'▲Iván Garrido←▼David Grande

86'▲Ayoze Placeres←▼Guille Andrés

Unionistas de Salamanca substitutes

NavasGarridoPlaceresDieguitoBlaiseHernándezAmouzou

Manager: Ángel Sánchez

57'▲Pepe Carmona←▼Y. Fékir

66'▲D. Sikorski←▼A. Bogdan

79'▲E. Bolaños←▼Luis Lara

Guijuelo substitutes

CarmonaSikorskiBolañosDiesteAgudoGarcíaKonaté

Match Recap: Unionistas de Salamanca vs Guijuelo

Unionistas de Salamanca beat Guijuelo 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on December 14, 2019.

Goals: Luis Lara (19'), Juan Góngora (50' pen), Álvaro Romero (60').

The match was played at Pistas del Helmántico in Salamanca.

Unionistas de Salamanca vs Guijuelo — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Unionistas de Salamanca vs Guijuelo