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Unionistas de Salamanca vs Fuenlabrada — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Unionistas de Salamanca
Unionistas de Salamanca
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Fuenlabrada
Fuenlabrada
2/18/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 24Campo de Futbol Reina Sofía

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Unionistas de Salamanca56%
×Draw27%
Fuenlabrada17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unionistas de Salamanca
1.47
Fuenlabrada
0.68

Unionistas de Salamanca creates 116% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 38 away

creates per match

Unionistas de Salamanca
1.44
Fuenlabrada
0.58

allows per match

Unionistas de Salamanca
0.78
Fuenlabrada
1.50

finishing

Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par
Fuenlabrada+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unionistas de Salamanca ↓

Fuenlabrada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Unionistas de Salamanca or draw
83%
Unionistas de Salamanca or Fuenlabrada
73%
Draw or Fuenlabrada
44%

Winning margin

Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+
29%
Fuenlabrada wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals
77%
Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals
43%
Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals
18%
Fuenlabrada 1+ goals
49%
Fuenlabrada 2+ goals
15%
Fuenlabrada 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)
77%
Fuenlabrada (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unionistas de Salamanca at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.78 · 107 matches

Fuenlabrada away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 1.44 + Fuenlabrada defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.47

Fuenlabrada attack 0.58 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Unionistas de Salamanca scores more
56%
level
27%
Fuenlabrada scores more
17%

Unionistas de Salamanca at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Unionistas de Salamanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unionistas de Salamanca vs Fuenlabrada

Unionistas de Salamanca beat Fuenlabrada 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de Futbol Reina Sofía in Salamanca.