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Unionistas de Salamanca vs Deportivo La Coruna — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Unionistas de Salamanca
Unionistas de Salamanca
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo La Coruna
Deportivo La Coruna
9/16/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 4Campo de Futbol Reina Sofía

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Unionistas de Salamanca40%
×Draw30%
Deportivo La Coruna30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unionistas de Salamanca
1.14
Deportivo La Coruna
0.96

Unionistas de Salamanca creates 19% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 68 away

creates per match

Unionistas de Salamanca
1.44
Deportivo La Coruna
1.15

allows per match

Unionistas de Salamanca
0.78
Deportivo La Coruna
0.84

finishing

Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par
Deportivo La Coruna+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unionistas de Salamanca ↓

Deportivo La Coruna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Unionistas de Salamanca or draw
70%
Unionistas de Salamanca or Deportivo La Coruna
70%
Draw or Deportivo La Coruna
60%

Winning margin

Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+
17%
Deportivo La Coruna wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals
68%
Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals
32%
Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals
11%
Deportivo La Coruna 1+ goals
62%
Deportivo La Coruna 2+ goals
25%
Deportivo La Coruna 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)
57%
Deportivo La Coruna (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unionistas de Salamanca at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.78 · 107 matches

Deportivo La Coruna away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.84 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 1.44 + Deportivo La Coruna defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.14

Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.15 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Unionistas de Salamanca scores more
40%
level
30%
Deportivo La Coruna scores more
30%

Unionistas de Salamanca at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Unionistas de Salamanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Unionistas de Salamanca 1–1 Deportivo La Coruna

Unionistas de Salamanca and Deportivo La Coruna drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de Futbol Reina Sofía in Salamanca.