Unionistas de Salamanca vs Deportivo Alavés II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 15+ matches
Unionistas de Salamanca50%
Deportivo Alavés II25%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Unionistas de Salamanca creates 50% more chances
Season form · 15 home / 28 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes53
- No47
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Unionistas de Salamanca ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Unionistas de Salamanca at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches
Deportivo Alavés II away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.79 · 28 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Unionistas de Salamanca attack 1.47 + Deportivo Alavés II defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.63
Deportivo Alavés II attack 0.71 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.09
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 50%?"
Unionistas de Salamanca at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 50% does not mean "Unionistas de Salamanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Eldense
Sabadell
Atlético Madrid II
Villarreal II
Europa Fc
FC Cartagena
Antequera
Algeciras
Hércules
Real Murcia
Alcorcon
Ibiza
Teruel
Gimnastic
Juventud Torremolinos
Tarazona
Real Betis II
Marbella
Sanluqueño
Sevilla AtleticoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Unionistas de Salamanca host Deportivo Alavés II on Sunday, 26 January 2020 at 11:00. The match is part of the Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019/2020 season.
Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Unionistas de Salamanca 4–2 Deportivo Alavés II
Unionistas de Salamanca beat Deportivo Alavés II 4-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 26, 2020.
Goals: Paulino (4'), Carlos de la Nava (36', 89'), Juan Góngora (64' pen, 76' pen), A. Lupu (77').
The match was played at Pistas del Helmántico in Salamanca.