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Unionistas de Salamanca vs Cordoba — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Unionistas de Salamanca
Unionistas de Salamanca
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cordoba
Cordoba
2/5/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 22Campo de Futbol Reina Sofía

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Unionistas de Salamanca44%
×Draw29%
Cordoba26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unionistas de Salamanca
1.22
Cordoba
0.86

Unionistas de Salamanca creates 42% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 19 away

creates per match

Unionistas de Salamanca
1.44
Cordoba
0.95

allows per match

Unionistas de Salamanca
0.78
Cordoba
1.00

finishing

Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par
Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unionistas de Salamanca ↓

Cordoba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Unionistas de Salamanca or draw
74%
Unionistas de Salamanca or Cordoba
71%
Draw or Cordoba
56%

Winning margin

Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+
20%
Cordoba wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals
70%
Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals
34%
Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals
12%
Cordoba 1+ goals
58%
Cordoba 2+ goals
21%
Cordoba 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)
63%
Cordoba (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unionistas de Salamanca at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.78 · 107 matches

Cordoba away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 1.44 + Cordoba defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.22

Cordoba attack 0.95 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Unionistas de Salamanca scores more
44%
level
29%
Cordoba scores more
26%

Unionistas de Salamanca at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Unionistas de Salamanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unionistas de Salamanca vs Cordoba

Unionistas de Salamanca and Cordoba drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 5, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de Futbol Reina Sofía in Salamanca.