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Unionistas de Salamanca vs Amorebieta — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Unionistas de Salamanca
Unionistas de Salamanca
CANC
00:00
Amorebieta
Amorebieta
3/21/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 30Pistas del Helmántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Unionistas de Salamanca36%
×Draw27%
Amorebieta37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unionistas de Salamanca
1.23
Amorebieta
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 46 away

creates per match

Unionistas de Salamanca
1.47
Amorebieta
1.07

allows per match

Unionistas de Salamanca
1.47
Amorebieta
0.98

finishing

Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par
Amorebieta+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unionistas de Salamanca ↓

Amorebieta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Unionistas de Salamanca or draw
63%
Unionistas de Salamanca or Amorebieta
73%
Draw or Amorebieta
64%

Winning margin

Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+
15%
Amorebieta wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals
71%
Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals
35%
Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals
13%
Amorebieta 1+ goals
72%
Amorebieta 2+ goals
36%
Amorebieta 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)
49%
Amorebieta (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unionistas de Salamanca at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Amorebieta away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.98 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 1.47 + Amorebieta defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.23

Amorebieta attack 1.07 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Unionistas de Salamanca scores more
36%
level
27%
Amorebieta scores more
37%

Amorebieta at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Amorebieta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Unionistas de Salamanca vs Amorebieta — Match Preview

Unionistas de Salamanca face Amorebieta on March 21, 2020 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Unionistas de Salamanca host Amorebieta at Pistas del Helmántico.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.