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Union Vöcklamarkt vs Wels — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Union Vöcklamarkt
Union Vöcklamarkt
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Wels
Wels
7/23/2021Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 1Sportzentrum Union Volksbank Vöcklamarkt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Union Vöcklamarkt61%
×Draw19%
Wels19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Vöcklamarkt
2.29
Wels
1.20

Union Vöcklamarkt creates 91% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 46 away

creates per match

Union Vöcklamarkt
1.70
Wels
1.09

allows per match

Union Vöcklamarkt
1.30
Wels
2.89

finishing

Union Vöcklamarkt+0.00on par
Wels+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Vöcklamarkt ↓

Wels →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Union Vöcklamarkt or draw
81%
Union Vöcklamarkt or Wels
81%
Draw or Wels
39%

Winning margin

Union Vöcklamarkt wins by 2+
39%
Wels wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Union Vöcklamarkt 1+ goals
90%
Union Vöcklamarkt 2+ goals
66%
Union Vöcklamarkt 3+ goals
40%
Wels 1+ goals
70%
Wels 2+ goals
34%
Wels 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Union Vöcklamarkt (draw refunded)
76%
Wels (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Vöcklamarkt at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.30 · 91 matches

Wels away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.89 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Vöcklamarkt attack 1.70 + Wels defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 2.29

Wels attack 1.09 + Union Vöcklamarkt defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Union Vöcklamarkt scores more
61%
level
19%
Wels scores more
19%

Union Vöcklamarkt at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Union Vöcklamarkt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Vöcklamarkt vs Wels

Union Vöcklamarkt beat Wels 1-0 in Regionalliga - Mitte on July 23, 2021.

The match was played at Sportzentrum Union Volksbank Vöcklamarkt in Vöcklamarkt.