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Union Vöcklamarkt vs Deutschlandsberger SC — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Union Vöcklamarkt
Union Vöcklamarkt
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Deutschlandsberger SC
Deutschlandsberger SC
11/8/2024Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 15BLACK CREVICE - Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Union Vöcklamarkt44%
×Draw23%
Deutschlandsberger SC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Vöcklamarkt
1.71
Deutschlandsberger SC
1.45

Union Vöcklamarkt creates 18% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 107 away

creates per match

Union Vöcklamarkt
1.70
Deutschlandsberger SC
1.60

allows per match

Union Vöcklamarkt
1.30
Deutschlandsberger SC
1.73

finishing

Union Vöcklamarkt+0.00on par
Deutschlandsberger SC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Vöcklamarkt ↓

Deutschlandsberger SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Union Vöcklamarkt or draw
67%
Union Vöcklamarkt or Deutschlandsberger SC
77%
Draw or Deutschlandsberger SC
56%

Winning margin

Union Vöcklamarkt wins by 2+
23%
Deutschlandsberger SC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Union Vöcklamarkt 1+ goals
82%
Union Vöcklamarkt 2+ goals
51%
Union Vöcklamarkt 3+ goals
24%
Deutschlandsberger SC 1+ goals
77%
Deutschlandsberger SC 2+ goals
42%
Deutschlandsberger SC 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Union Vöcklamarkt (draw refunded)
57%
Deutschlandsberger SC (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Vöcklamarkt at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.30 · 91 matches

Deutschlandsberger SC away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.73 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Vöcklamarkt attack 1.70 + Deutschlandsberger SC defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.71

Deutschlandsberger SC attack 1.60 + Union Vöcklamarkt defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Union Vöcklamarkt scores more
44%
level
23%
Deutschlandsberger SC scores more
33%

Union Vöcklamarkt at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Union Vöcklamarkt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Mitte: Union Vöcklamarkt 3–3 Deutschlandsberger SC

Union Vöcklamarkt and Deutschlandsberger SC drew 3-3 in Regionalliga - Mitte on November 8, 2024.

The match was played at BLACK CREVICE - Stadion in Vöcklamarkt.