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Unión Viera vs Vera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Unión Viera
Unión Viera
CANC
00:00
Vera
Vera
3/29/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 31Estadio Alfonso Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Unión Viera40%
×Draw25%
Vera35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unión Viera
1.44
Vera
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 44 away

creates per match

Unión Viera
1.05
Vera
1.11

allows per match

Unión Viera
1.53
Vera
1.82

finishing

Unión Viera+0.00on par
Vera+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unión Viera ↓

Vera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Unión Viera or draw
65%
Unión Viera or Vera
75%
Draw or Vera
60%

Winning margin

Unión Viera wins by 2+
19%
Vera wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Unión Viera 1+ goals
76%
Unión Viera 2+ goals
42%
Unión Viera 3+ goals
18%
Vera 1+ goals
73%
Vera 2+ goals
38%
Vera 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Unión Viera (draw refunded)
54%
Vera (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unión Viera at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.53 · 58 matches

Vera away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.82 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unión Viera attack 1.05 + Vera defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.44

Vera attack 1.11 + Unión Viera defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Unión Viera scores more
40%
level
25%
Vera scores more
35%

Unión Viera at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Unión Viera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Unión Viera face Vera (Tercera División RFEF - Group 12)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 returns with Unión Viera hosting Vera. Match starts March 29, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Unión Viera host Vera at Estadio Alfonso Silva.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.