Unión Viera 3–0 Unión Sur Yaiza: Result & Stats

Unión Viera

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Unión Sur Yaiza

9/18/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 3Estadio Alfonso Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Unión Viera36%

×Draw28%

Unión Sur Yaiza37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unión VieraExpected goals in this matchUnión Sur Yaiza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.21

Unión Viera

1.19

Unión Sur Yaiza

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 65 away

1.05

creates per match

0.88

1.53

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Unión Viera

1.05

Unión Sur Yaiza

0.88

allows per match

Unión Viera

1.53

Unión Sur Yaiza

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unión Viera+0.00on par

Unión Sur Yaiza+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unión Viera ↓

Unión Sur Yaiza →

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Unión Viera or draw

63%

Unión Viera or Unión Sur Yaiza

72%

Draw or Unión Sur Yaiza

64%

Winning margin

Unión Viera wins by 2+

15%

Unión Sur Yaiza wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Unión Viera 1+ goals

70%

Unión Viera 2+ goals

33%

Unión Viera 3+ goals

12%

Unión Sur Yaiza 1+ goals

70%

Unión Sur Yaiza 2+ goals

34%

Unión Sur Yaiza 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Unión Viera (draw refunded)

49%

Unión Sur Yaiza (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Unión Viera at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.53 · 58 matches

Unión Sur Yaiza away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.32 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Unión Viera attack 1.05 + Unión Sur Yaiza defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.19

Unión Sur Yaiza attack 0.88 + Unión Viera defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Unión Viera scores more

36%

level

28%

Unión Sur Yaiza scores more

37%

Unión Sur Yaiza at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Unión Sur Yaiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unión Viera vs Unión Sur Yaiza

Unión Viera beat Unión Sur Yaiza 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Alfonso Silva in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria.

Unión Viera vs Unión Sur Yaiza — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Unión Viera vs Unión Sur Yaiza