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Unión Viera vs Santa Úrsula — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Unión Viera
Unión Viera
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Santa Úrsula
Santa Úrsula
12/21/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 16Estadio Alfonso Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Unión Viera38%
×Draw27%
Santa Úrsula35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unión Viera
1.29
Santa Úrsula
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 92 away

creates per match

Unión Viera
1.05
Santa Úrsula
0.90

allows per match

Unión Viera
1.53
Santa Úrsula
1.52

finishing

Unión Viera+0.00on par
Santa Úrsula+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unión Viera ↓

Santa Úrsula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Unión Viera or draw
65%
Unión Viera or Santa Úrsula
73%
Draw or Santa Úrsula
62%

Winning margin

Unión Viera wins by 2+
17%
Santa Úrsula wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Unión Viera 1+ goals
72%
Unión Viera 2+ goals
37%
Unión Viera 3+ goals
14%
Santa Úrsula 1+ goals
70%
Santa Úrsula 2+ goals
34%
Santa Úrsula 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Unión Viera (draw refunded)
52%
Santa Úrsula (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unión Viera at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.53 · 58 matches

Santa Úrsula away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.52 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unión Viera attack 1.05 + Santa Úrsula defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.29

Santa Úrsula attack 0.90 + Unión Viera defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Unión Viera scores more
38%
level
27%
Santa Úrsula scores more
35%

Unión Viera at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Unión Viera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unión Viera vs Santa Úrsula

Santa Úrsula beat Unión Viera 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on December 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Alfonso Silva in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria.