Unión Viera 4–6 San Bartolomé: Result & Stats

Unión Viera

4 – 6

HT: 1 – 1

San Bartolomé

5/10/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 34Estadio Alfonso Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Unión Viera38%

×Draw26%

San Bartolomé35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unión VieraExpected goals in this matchSan Bartolomé

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.27

Unión Viera

1.34

San Bartolomé

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 51 away

1.05

creates per match

1.00

1.53

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Unión Viera

1.05

San Bartolomé

1.00

allows per match

Unión Viera

1.53

San Bartolomé

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unión Viera+0.00on par

San Bartolomé+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unión Viera ↓

San Bartolomé →

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Unión Viera or draw

65%

Unión Viera or San Bartolomé

74%

Draw or San Bartolomé

62%

Winning margin

Unión Viera wins by 2+

17%

San Bartolomé wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Unión Viera 1+ goals

74%

Unión Viera 2+ goals

39%

Unión Viera 3+ goals

15%

San Bartolomé 1+ goals

72%

San Bartolomé 2+ goals

36%

San Bartolomé 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Unión Viera (draw refunded)

52%

San Bartolomé (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Unión Viera at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.53 · 58 matches

San Bartolomé away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.63 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Unión Viera attack 1.05 + San Bartolomé defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.34

San Bartolomé attack 1.00 + Unión Viera defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Unión Viera scores more

38%

level

26%

San Bartolomé scores more

35%

Unión Viera at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Unión Viera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Unión Viera 4–6 San Bartolomé

San Bartolomé beat Unión Viera 6-4 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Alfonso Silva in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria.

Unión Viera vs San Bartolomé — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Unión Viera 4–6 San Bartolomé