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Unión Viera vs La Cuadra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Unión Viera
Unión Viera
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
La Cuadra
La Cuadra
3/6/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 16Estadio Alfonso Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Unión Viera41%
×Draw26%
La Cuadra33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unión Viera
1.43
La Cuadra
1.27

Unión Viera creates 13% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 75 away

creates per match

Unión Viera
1.05
La Cuadra
1.01

allows per match

Unión Viera
1.53
La Cuadra
1.81

finishing

Unión Viera+0.00on par
La Cuadra+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unión Viera ↓

La Cuadra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Unión Viera or draw
67%
Unión Viera or La Cuadra
74%
Draw or La Cuadra
59%

Winning margin

Unión Viera wins by 2+
19%
La Cuadra wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Unión Viera 1+ goals
76%
Unión Viera 2+ goals
42%
Unión Viera 3+ goals
17%
La Cuadra 1+ goals
72%
La Cuadra 2+ goals
36%
La Cuadra 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Unión Viera (draw refunded)
55%
La Cuadra (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unión Viera at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.53 · 58 matches

La Cuadra away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.81 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unión Viera attack 1.05 + La Cuadra defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.43

La Cuadra attack 1.01 + Unión Viera defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Unión Viera scores more
41%
level
26%
La Cuadra scores more
33%

Unión Viera at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Unión Viera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Unión Viera 1–3 La Cuadra

La Cuadra beat Unión Viera 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on March 6, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Alfonso Silva in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria.