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Unión Viera vs Estrella — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Unión Viera
Unión Viera
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Estrella
Estrella
3/7/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 25Estadio Alfonso Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Unión Viera53%
×Draw24%
Estrella23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unión Viera
1.71
Estrella
1.04

Unión Viera creates 64% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 32 away

creates per match

Unión Viera
1.05
Estrella
0.56

allows per match

Unión Viera
1.53
Estrella
2.38

finishing

Unión Viera+0.00on par
Estrella+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unión Viera ↓

Estrella →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Unión Viera or draw
77%
Unión Viera or Estrella
76%
Draw or Estrella
47%

Winning margin

Unión Viera wins by 2+
29%
Estrella wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Unión Viera 1+ goals
82%
Unión Viera 2+ goals
51%
Unión Viera 3+ goals
24%
Estrella 1+ goals
65%
Estrella 2+ goals
28%
Estrella 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Unión Viera (draw refunded)
70%
Estrella (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unión Viera at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.53 · 58 matches

Estrella away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.38 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unión Viera attack 1.05 + Estrella defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.71

Estrella attack 0.56 + Unión Viera defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Unión Viera scores more
53%
level
24%
Estrella scores more
23%

Unión Viera at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Unión Viera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Unión Viera 0–2 Estrella

Estrella beat Unión Viera 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on March 7, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Alfonso Silva in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria.