Unión Viera 0–1 Buzanada: Result & Stats

Unión Viera

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Buzanada

3/5/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 26Estadio Alfonso Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Unión Viera42%

×Draw27%

Buzanada30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unión VieraExpected goals in this matchBuzanada

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.10

Unión Viera

1.35

Buzanada

1.10

Unión Viera creates 23% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 76 away

1.05

creates per match

0.67

1.53

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Unión Viera

1.05

Buzanada

0.67

allows per match

Unión Viera

1.53

Buzanada

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unión Viera+0.00on par

Buzanada+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unión Viera ↓

Buzanada →

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Unión Viera or draw

70%

Unión Viera or Buzanada

73%

Draw or Buzanada

58%

Winning margin

Unión Viera wins by 2+

20%

Buzanada wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Unión Viera 1+ goals

74%

Unión Viera 2+ goals

39%

Unión Viera 3+ goals

15%

Buzanada 1+ goals

67%

Buzanada 2+ goals

30%

Buzanada 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Unión Viera (draw refunded)

58%

Buzanada (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Unión Viera at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.53 · 58 matches

Buzanada away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.66 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Unión Viera attack 1.05 + Buzanada defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.35

Buzanada attack 0.67 + Unión Viera defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Unión Viera scores more

42%

level

27%

Buzanada scores more

30%

Unión Viera at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Unión Viera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff