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Union Titus Petange vs RM Hamm Benfica — National Division 2018

Union Titus Petange
Union Titus Petange
FT
3 – 0
RM Hamm Benfica
RM Hamm Benfica
3/3/2019National DivisionNational Division · Round 15Stade Municipal de Pétange (Péiteng (Pétange))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Union Titus Petange53%
×Draw22%
RM Hamm Benfica24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Titus Petange
1.92
RM Hamm Benfica
1.23

Union Titus Petange creates 56% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 52 away

creates per match

Union Titus Petange
1.48
RM Hamm Benfica
1.13

allows per match

Union Titus Petange
1.34
RM Hamm Benfica
2.35

finishing

Union Titus Petange+0.00on par
RM Hamm Benfica+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Titus Petange ↓

RM Hamm Benfica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Union Titus Petange or draw
76%
Union Titus Petange or RM Hamm Benfica
78%
Draw or RM Hamm Benfica
47%

Winning margin

Union Titus Petange wins by 2+
31%
RM Hamm Benfica wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Union Titus Petange 1+ goals
85%
Union Titus Petange 2+ goals
57%
Union Titus Petange 3+ goals
30%
RM Hamm Benfica 1+ goals
71%
RM Hamm Benfica 2+ goals
35%
RM Hamm Benfica 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Union Titus Petange (draw refunded)
69%
RM Hamm Benfica (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Titus Petange at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.34 · 112 matches

RM Hamm Benfica away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.35 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Titus Petange attack 1.48 + RM Hamm Benfica defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.92

RM Hamm Benfica attack 1.13 + Union Titus Petange defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Union Titus Petange scores more
53%
level
22%
RM Hamm Benfica scores more
24%

Union Titus Petange at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Union Titus Petange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

68'
Semsudin Dzanic
75'
Tun Held
90'
Ibou Sawaneh

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Division: Union Titus Petange 3–0 RM Hamm Benfica

Union Titus Petange beat RM Hamm Benfica 3-0 in National Division on March 3, 2019.

Goals: Semsudin Dzanic (68'), Tun Held (75'), Ibou Sawaneh (90').

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Pétange (Péiteng (Pétange)).