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Unión Sur Yaiza vs Tenerife II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Unión Sur Yaiza
Unión Sur Yaiza
FT
4 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Tenerife II
Tenerife II
4/8/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 28Estadio Municipal de Yaiza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Unión Sur Yaiza42%
×Draw26%
Tenerife II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unión Sur Yaiza
1.47
Tenerife II
1.25

Unión Sur Yaiza creates 18% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 74 away

creates per match

Unión Sur Yaiza
1.85
Tenerife II
1.46

allows per match

Unión Sur Yaiza
1.05
Tenerife II
1.08

finishing

Unión Sur Yaiza+0.00on par
Tenerife II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unión Sur Yaiza ↓

Tenerife II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Unión Sur Yaiza or draw
68%
Unión Sur Yaiza or Tenerife II
74%
Draw or Tenerife II
58%

Winning margin

Unión Sur Yaiza wins by 2+
20%
Tenerife II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Unión Sur Yaiza 1+ goals
77%
Unión Sur Yaiza 2+ goals
43%
Unión Sur Yaiza 3+ goals
18%
Tenerife II 1+ goals
71%
Tenerife II 2+ goals
36%
Tenerife II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Unión Sur Yaiza (draw refunded)
57%
Tenerife II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unión Sur Yaiza at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.05 · 65 matches

Tenerife II away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.08 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unión Sur Yaiza attack 1.85 + Tenerife II defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.47

Tenerife II attack 1.46 + Unión Sur Yaiza defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Unión Sur Yaiza scores more
42%
level
26%
Tenerife II scores more
32%

Unión Sur Yaiza at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Unión Sur Yaiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unión Sur Yaiza vs Tenerife II

Unión Sur Yaiza beat Tenerife II 4-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on April 8, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Yaiza in Lanzarote.