Unión Sur Yaiza 4–0 Santa Úrsula: Result & Stats

Unión Sur Yaiza

4 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Santa Úrsula

2/24/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 22Estadio Municipal de Yaiza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Unión Sur Yaiza54%

×Draw24%

Santa Úrsula22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unión Sur YaizaExpected goals in this matchSanta Úrsula

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.98

Unión Sur Yaiza

1.69

Santa Úrsula

0.98

Unión Sur Yaiza creates 72% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 92 away

1.85

creates per match

0.90

1.05

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Unión Sur Yaiza

1.85

Santa Úrsula

0.90

allows per match

Unión Sur Yaiza

1.05

Santa Úrsula

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unión Sur Yaiza+0.00on par

Santa Úrsula+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unión Sur Yaiza ↓

Santa Úrsula →

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Unión Sur Yaiza or draw

78%

Unión Sur Yaiza or Santa Úrsula

76%

Draw or Santa Úrsula

46%

Winning margin

Unión Sur Yaiza wins by 2+

29%

Santa Úrsula wins by 2+

Team goals

Unión Sur Yaiza 1+ goals

82%

Unión Sur Yaiza 2+ goals

50%

Unión Sur Yaiza 3+ goals

24%

Santa Úrsula 1+ goals

62%

Santa Úrsula 2+ goals

26%

Santa Úrsula 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Unión Sur Yaiza (draw refunded)

71%

Santa Úrsula (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Unión Sur Yaiza at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.05 · 65 matches

Santa Úrsula away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.52 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Unión Sur Yaiza attack 1.85 + Santa Úrsula defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.69

Santa Úrsula attack 0.90 + Unión Sur Yaiza defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Unión Sur Yaiza scores more

54%

level

24%

Santa Úrsula scores more

22%

Unión Sur Yaiza at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Unión Sur Yaiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff