Unión Sur Yaiza 2–2 Ibarra: Result & Stats

Unión Sur Yaiza

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Ibarra

10/22/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 7Estadio Municipal de Yaiza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Unión Sur Yaiza59%

×Draw22%

Ibarra19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unión Sur YaizaExpected goals in this matchIbarra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

0.97

Unión Sur Yaiza

1.92

Ibarra

0.97

Unión Sur Yaiza creates 98% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 77 away

1.85

creates per match

0.88

1.05

allows per match

1.99

creates per match

Unión Sur Yaiza

1.85

Ibarra

0.88

allows per match

Unión Sur Yaiza

1.05

Ibarra

1.99

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unión Sur Yaiza+0.00on par

Ibarra+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unión Sur Yaiza ↓

Ibarra →

0–06%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Unión Sur Yaiza or draw

81%

Unión Sur Yaiza or Ibarra

78%

Draw or Ibarra

41%

Winning margin

Unión Sur Yaiza wins by 2+

35%

Ibarra wins by 2+

Team goals

Unión Sur Yaiza 1+ goals

85%

Unión Sur Yaiza 2+ goals

57%

Unión Sur Yaiza 3+ goals

30%

Ibarra 1+ goals

62%

Ibarra 2+ goals

25%

Ibarra 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Unión Sur Yaiza (draw refunded)

76%

Ibarra (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Unión Sur Yaiza at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.05 · 65 matches

Ibarra away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.99 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Unión Sur Yaiza attack 1.85 + Ibarra defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.92

Ibarra attack 0.88 + Unión Sur Yaiza defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

Unión Sur Yaiza scores more

59%

level

22%

Ibarra scores more

19%

Unión Sur Yaiza at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Unión Sur Yaiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff