Union Sunchales 1–2 Sarmiento Resistencia

Union Sunchales

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Sarmiento Resistencia

J. Almada 38'

G. González 39' (pen)

P. Soda 36'

9/8/2024

Torneo Federal A · Lower Table Round - 8Estadio Unión de Sunchales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Union Sunchales43%

×Draw29%

Sarmiento Resistencia28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union SunchalesExpected goals in this matchSarmiento Resistencia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.94

Union Sunchales

1.22

Sarmiento Resistencia

0.94

Union Sunchales creates 30% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 114 away

1.22

creates per match

0.86

1.01

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Union Sunchales

1.22

Sarmiento Resistencia

0.86

allows per match

Union Sunchales

1.01

Sarmiento Resistencia

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Sunchales+0.00on par

Sarmiento Resistencia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Sunchales ↓

Sarmiento Resistencia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Union Sunchales or draw

72%

Union Sunchales or Sarmiento Resistencia

71%

Draw or Sarmiento Resistencia

57%

Winning margin

Union Sunchales wins by 2+

19%

Sarmiento Resistencia wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Union Sunchales 1+ goals

70%

Union Sunchales 2+ goals

34%

Union Sunchales 3+ goals

12%

Sarmiento Resistencia 1+ goals

61%

Sarmiento Resistencia 2+ goals

24%

Sarmiento Resistencia 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Union Sunchales (draw refunded)

60%

Sarmiento Resistencia (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Sunchales at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 86 matches

Sarmiento Resistencia away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.22 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Sunchales attack 1.22 + Sarmiento Resistencia defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.22

Sarmiento Resistencia attack 0.86 + Union Sunchales defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Union Sunchales scores more

43%

level

29%

Sarmiento Resistencia scores more

28%

Union Sunchales at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Union Sunchales will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

P. Soda

38'

J. Almada

39'

G. GonzálezPenalty

42'

G. Albertengo← J. Aguilar

66'

M. Ayala← T. Squie

66'

B. Prieto← E. Niz

71'

71'

72'

72'

80'

S. Faudone← N. Pautasso

86'

J. Martínez← G. González

Union

Sarmiento

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Soda

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Milanese

42'▲G. Albertengo←▼J. Aguilar

71'▲F. Picone←▼G. Romero

71'▲P. Luque←▼B. Nellen

80'▲S. Faudone←▼N. Pautasso

Union Sunchales substitutes

AlbertengoPiconeLuqueFaudone

Manager: M. Urbina

66'▲M. Ayala←▼T. Squie

66'▲B. Prieto←▼E. Niz

72'▲T. Gaitán←▼P. Soda

72'▲J. Lucero←▼F. Falcón

86'▲J. Martínez←▼G. González

Sarmiento Resistencia substitutes

AyalaPrietoGaitánLuceroMartínez

Torneo Federal A: Union Sunchales 1–2 Sarmiento Resistencia

Sarmiento Resistencia beat Union Sunchales 2-1 in Torneo Federal A on September 8, 2024.

Goals: P. Soda (36'), J. Almada (38'), G. González (39' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Unión de Sunchales in Sunchales, Provincia de Santa Fe.

Union Sunchales vs Sarmiento Resistencia — Torneo Federal A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Torneo Federal A: Union Sunchales 1–2 Sarmiento Resistencia