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Union Sunchales vs Central Norte — Torneo Federal A 2018

Union Sunchales
Union Sunchales
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Central Norte
Central Norte
6/20/2021Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group B - 8Estadio Unión de Sunchales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Union Sunchales39%
×Draw29%
Central Norte31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Sunchales
1.16
Central Norte
1.00

Union Sunchales creates 16% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 76 away

creates per match

Union Sunchales
1.22
Central Norte
1.00

allows per match

Union Sunchales
1.01
Central Norte
1.09

finishing

Union Sunchales+0.00on par
Central Norte+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Sunchales ↓

Central Norte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Union Sunchales or draw
69%
Union Sunchales or Central Norte
71%
Draw or Central Norte
61%

Winning margin

Union Sunchales wins by 2+
17%
Central Norte wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Union Sunchales 1+ goals
69%
Union Sunchales 2+ goals
32%
Union Sunchales 3+ goals
11%
Central Norte 1+ goals
63%
Central Norte 2+ goals
26%
Central Norte 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Union Sunchales (draw refunded)
56%
Central Norte (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Sunchales at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 86 matches

Central Norte away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.09 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Sunchales attack 1.22 + Central Norte defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.16

Central Norte attack 1.00 + Union Sunchales defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Union Sunchales scores more
39%
level
29%
Central Norte scores more
31%

Union Sunchales at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Union Sunchales will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Union Sunchales 0–1 Central Norte

Central Norte beat Union Sunchales 1-0 in Torneo Federal A on June 20, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Unión de Sunchales in Sunchales, Provincia de Santa Fe.