Central Norte 3–2 Union Sunchales: Result & Stats

Central Norte

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Union Sunchales

G. Lesman 83'

A. Varela 81'

D. Magno 28'

T. Attis 58'

R. Villar 43'

9/19/2021

Torneo Federal A · Group B - 23Estadio Dr. Luis Güemes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Central Norte60%

×Draw24%

Union Sunchales16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Central NorteExpected goals in this matchUnion Sunchales

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.71

Central Norte

1.67

Union Sunchales

0.71

Central Norte creates 135% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 83 away

1.69

creates per match

0.77

0.65

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Central Norte

1.69

Union Sunchales

0.77

allows per match

Central Norte

0.65

Union Sunchales

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Central Norte+0.00on par

Union Sunchales+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Norte ↓

Union Sunchales →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Central Norte or draw

84%

Central Norte or Union Sunchales

76%

Draw or Union Sunchales

40%

Winning margin

Central Norte wins by 2+

34%

Union Sunchales wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Central Norte 1+ goals

81%

Central Norte 2+ goals

50%

Central Norte 3+ goals

23%

Union Sunchales 1+ goals

51%

Union Sunchales 2+ goals

16%

Union Sunchales 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Central Norte (draw refunded)

79%

Union Sunchales (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Norte at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.65 · 77 matches

Union Sunchales away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.65 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Norte attack 1.69 + Union Sunchales defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.67

Union Sunchales attack 0.77 + Central Norte defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Central Norte scores more

60%

level

24%

Union Sunchales scores more

16%

Central Norte at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Central Norte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

43'

55'

58'

60'

60'

M. Bravo← D. Carrasco

76'

G. Schonfeld← R. Villar

80'

A. Varela← N. Gómez

81'

A. Varela

83'

G. Lesman

85'

M. Ponce← A. Alberione

85'

A. Rodríguez← C. Sánchez

89'

F. Rodríguez← L. Arcuri

89'

C. Chavarría← G. Lesman

Central

Union

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Lesman

⚽

Magno

Manager: E. Medrán

60'▲N. Carral←▼F. Apaza

60'▲M. Bravo←▼D. Carrasco

80'▲A. Varela←▼N. Gómez

89'▲F. Rodríguez←▼L. Arcuri

89'▲C. Chavarría←▼G. Lesman

Central Norte substitutes

CarralBravoVarelaRodríguezChavarría

Manager: A. Tosetto

55'▲G. Baier←▼D. López

76'▲G. Schonfeld←▼R. Villar

85'▲M. Ponce←▼A. Alberione

85'▲A. Rodríguez←▼C. Sánchez

Union Sunchales substitutes

BaierSchonfeldPonceRodríguez

Torneo Federal A: Central Norte 3–2 Union Sunchales

Central Norte beat Union Sunchales 3-2 in Torneo Federal A on September 19, 2021.

Goals: D. Magno (28'), R. Villar (43'), T. Attis (58'), A. Varela (81'), G. Lesman (83').

The match was played at Estadio Dr. Luis Güemes in Salta, Provincia de Salta.

Central Norte vs Union Sunchales — Torneo Federal A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Torneo Federal A: Central Norte 3–2 Union Sunchales