Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven — Jupiler Pro League 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 24+ matches
Union St. Gilloise61%
OH Leuven17%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Union St. Gilloise creates 112% more chances
Season form · 28 home / 24 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over55
- Under45
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Union St. Gilloise ↓
Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Union St. Gilloise at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.74 · 28 matches
OH Leuven away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.79 · 24 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Union St. Gilloise attack 2.11 + OH Leuven defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.95
OH Leuven attack 1.10 + Union St. Gilloise defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.92
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 61%?"
Union St. Gilloise at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 61% does not mean "Union St. Gilloise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Union St. Gilloise
Club Brugge KV
St. Truiden
Gent
KV Mechelen
Anderlecht
Genk
Standard Liege
KVC Westerlo
Antwerp
CharleroiOH Leuven
Zulte Waregem
Cercle Brugge
RAAL La Louvière
DenderIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Union St. Gilloise host OH Leuven on Sunday, 19 January 2025 at 15:00. The match is part of the Jupiler Pro League 2025/2026 season.
Jupiler Pro League: Union St. Gilloise 1–0 OH Leuven
Union St. Gilloise beat OH Leuven 1-0 in Jupiler Pro League on January 19, 2025.
Goals: P. David (15' pen).
OH Leuven controlled possession (51%) and registered 5 shots to 17.
The match was played at Stade Joseph Mariën in Brussels.