Union St. Gilloise 0–1 KV Mechelen: Result & Stats

Union St. Gilloise

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

KV Mechelen

B. Raman 42'

2/16/2025

Jupiler Pro League · Round 26Stade Joseph Mariën

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Union St. Gilloise63%

×Draw21%

KV Mechelen16%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union St. GilloiseExpected goals in this matchKV Mechelen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

0.91

Union St. Gilloise

2.01

KV Mechelen

0.91

Union St. Gilloise creates 121% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 18 away

2.11

creates per match

1.05

0.76

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Union St. Gilloise

2.11

KV Mechelen

1.05

allows per match

Union St. Gilloise

0.76

KV Mechelen

1.91

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

+0.45scores more than expected

finishing

Union St. Gilloise+0.13scores more

KV Mechelen+0.45scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union St. Gilloise ↓

KV Mechelen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Union St. Gilloise or draw

84%

Union St. Gilloise or KV Mechelen

79%

Draw or KV Mechelen

37%

Winning margin

Union St. Gilloise wins by 2+

38%

KV Mechelen wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Union St. Gilloise 1+ goals

87%

Union St. Gilloise 2+ goals

59%

Union St. Gilloise 3+ goals

32%

KV Mechelen 1+ goals

60%

KV Mechelen 2+ goals

23%

KV Mechelen 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Union St. Gilloise (draw refunded)

79%

KV Mechelen (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union St. Gilloise at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.76 · 29 matches

KV Mechelen away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.91 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union St. Gilloise attack 2.11 + KV Mechelen defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.01

KV Mechelen attack 1.05 + Union St. Gilloise defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Union St. Gilloise scores more

63%

level

21%

KV Mechelen scores more

16%

Union St. Gilloise at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Union St. Gilloise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

O. De Wolf

KV Mechelen · G

9.2

Match Events

42'

Ahmed Touba

42'

B. Raman↳ B. Antonio

50'

Promise David

63'

A. Ait El Hadj← M. Fuseini

64'

D. Foulon← B. Antonio

75'

K. Mrabti← N. Storm

76'

A. Ouattara← R. Schoofs

77'

M. Giger← K. Mac Allister

77'

S. Boufal← M. Rasmussen

80'

Sofiane Boufal

82'

J. Ngoy← B. Raman

85'

K. Rodríguez← K. Machida

86'

Ross Sykes

90+5'

Noah Sadiki

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UnionKV

Overview

54%Possession46%

19Total Shots11

2.01Expected Goals (xG)1.14

9Corners5

13Fouls9

Shots

19Total Shots11

9On Target4

10Off Target5

0Blocked2

13Inside Box8

6Outside Box3

Passing

54%Possession46%

465Total Passes397

366Accurate Passes299

79%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves9

1.92Goals Prevented1.92

Discipline

13Fouls9

4Yellow Cards1

0Offsides4