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Union St. Gilloise vs KV Mechelen — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Union St. Gilloise
Union St. Gilloise
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
KV Mechelen
KV Mechelen
12/17/2023Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 18Stade Joseph Mariën

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Union St. Gilloise61%
×Draw22%
KV Mechelen18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union St. Gilloise
1.95
KV Mechelen
0.94

Union St. Gilloise creates 107% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 21 away

creates per match

Union St. Gilloise
2.02
KV Mechelen
1.10

allows per match

Union St. Gilloise
0.77
KV Mechelen
1.88

finishing

Union St. Gilloise+0.13scores more
KV Mechelen+0.33scores more

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union St. Gilloise ↓

KV Mechelen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Union St. Gilloise or draw
82%
Union St. Gilloise or KV Mechelen
78%
Draw or KV Mechelen
39%

Winning margin

Union St. Gilloise wins by 2+
36%
KV Mechelen wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Union St. Gilloise 1+ goals
86%
Union St. Gilloise 2+ goals
58%
Union St. Gilloise 3+ goals
31%
KV Mechelen 1+ goals
61%
KV Mechelen 2+ goals
24%
KV Mechelen 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Union St. Gilloise (draw refunded)
78%
KV Mechelen (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union St. Gilloise at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.77 · 33 matches

KV Mechelen away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.88 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union St. Gilloise attack 2.02 + KV Mechelen defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.95

KV Mechelen attack 1.10 + Union St. Gilloise defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Union St. Gilloise scores more
61%
level
22%
KV Mechelen scores more
18%

Union St. Gilloise at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Union St. Gilloise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jupiler Pro League: Union St. Gilloise 1–0 KV Mechelen

Union St. Gilloise beat KV Mechelen 1-0 in Jupiler Pro League on December 17, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Joseph Mariën in Brussels.