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Union St. Gilloise vs FC ST. Gallen — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Union St. Gilloise
Union St. Gilloise
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FC ST. Gallen
FC ST. Gallen
1/12/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Pinatar Arena Football Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Union St. Gilloise76%
×Draw14%
FC ST. Gallen10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union St. Gilloise
2.94
FC ST. Gallen
0.98

Union St. Gilloise creates 200% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

creates per match

Union St. Gilloise
4.00
FC ST. Gallen
1.22

allows per match

Union St. Gilloise
0.75
FC ST. Gallen
1.89

finishing

Union St. Gilloise+0.00on par
FC ST. Gallen+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union St. Gilloise ↓

FC ST. Gallen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Union St. Gilloise or draw
90%
Union St. Gilloise or FC ST. Gallen
86%
Draw or FC ST. Gallen
24%

Winning margin

Union St. Gilloise wins by 2+
56%
FC ST. Gallen wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Union St. Gilloise 1+ goals
95%
Union St. Gilloise 2+ goals
79%
Union St. Gilloise 3+ goals
55%
FC ST. Gallen 1+ goals
62%
FC ST. Gallen 2+ goals
26%
FC ST. Gallen 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Union St. Gilloise (draw refunded)
89%
FC ST. Gallen (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union St. Gilloise at home — creates 4.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

FC ST. Gallen away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union St. Gilloise attack 4.00 + FC ST. Gallen defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.94

FC ST. Gallen attack 1.22 + Union St. Gilloise defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Union St. Gilloise scores more
76%
level
14%
FC ST. Gallen scores more
10%

Union St. Gilloise at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Union St. Gilloise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Union St. Gilloise 4–0 FC ST. Gallen

Union St. Gilloise beat FC ST. Gallen 4-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 12, 2024.

The match was played at Pinatar Arena Football Center in San Pedro del Pinatar.