Union St. Gilloise 4–1 AS Eupen: Result & Stats

Union St. Gilloise

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

AS Eupen

10/20/2023

Jupiler Pro League · Round 11Stade Joseph Mariën

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Union St. Gilloise63%

×Draw21%

AS Eupen16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union St. GilloiseExpected goals in this matchAS Eupen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

0.89

Union St. Gilloise

1.98

AS Eupen

0.89

Union St. Gilloise creates 122% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 99 away

1.98

creates per match

0.96

0.81

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Union St. Gilloise

1.98

AS Eupen

0.96

allows per match

Union St. Gilloise

0.81

AS Eupen

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union St. Gilloise+0.00on par

AS Eupen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union St. Gilloise ↓

AS Eupen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Union St. Gilloise or draw

84%

Union St. Gilloise or AS Eupen

79%

Draw or AS Eupen

37%

Winning margin

Union St. Gilloise wins by 2+

38%

AS Eupen wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Union St. Gilloise 1+ goals

86%

Union St. Gilloise 2+ goals

59%

Union St. Gilloise 3+ goals

31%

AS Eupen 1+ goals

59%

AS Eupen 2+ goals

22%

AS Eupen 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Union St. Gilloise (draw refunded)

79%

AS Eupen (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union St. Gilloise at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.81 · 100 matches

AS Eupen away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.97 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union St. Gilloise attack 1.98 + AS Eupen defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.98

AS Eupen attack 0.96 + Union St. Gilloise defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Union St. Gilloise scores more

63%

level

21%

AS Eupen scores more

16%

Union St. Gilloise at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Union St. Gilloise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff