Union St. Florian 0–0 Union Perg: Result & Stats

Union St. Florian

FT

0 – 0

Union Perg

9/20/2019

Landesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 8Sportpark St. Florian

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Union St. Florian46%

×Draw24%

Union Perg30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union St. FlorianExpected goals in this matchUnion Perg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.29

Union St. Florian

1.65

Union Perg

1.29

Union St. Florian creates 28% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 87 away

1.40

creates per match

1.25

1.33

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Union St. Florian

1.40

Union Perg

1.25

allows per match

Union St. Florian

1.33

Union Perg

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union St. Florian+0.00on par

Union Perg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union St. Florian ↓

Union Perg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Union St. Florian or draw

70%

Union St. Florian or Union Perg

76%

Draw or Union Perg

54%

Winning margin

Union St. Florian wins by 2+

24%

Union Perg wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Union St. Florian 1+ goals

81%

Union St. Florian 2+ goals

49%

Union St. Florian 3+ goals

23%

Union Perg 1+ goals

72%

Union Perg 2+ goals

37%

Union Perg 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Union St. Florian (draw refunded)

60%

Union Perg (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union St. Florian at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

Union Perg away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.89 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union St. Florian attack 1.40 + Union Perg defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.65

Union Perg attack 1.25 + Union St. Florian defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Union St. Florian scores more

46%

level

24%

Union Perg scores more

30%

Union St. Florian at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Union St. Florian will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff