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Union Perg vs Union St. Florian — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Union Perg
Union Perg
CANC
00:00
Union St. Florian
Union St. Florian
4/25/2020Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 23abd-Arena Perg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Union Perg52%
×Draw23%
Union St. Florian25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Perg
1.83
Union St. Florian
1.18

Union Perg creates 55% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 29 away

creates per match

Union Perg
1.67
Union St. Florian
1.10

allows per match

Union Perg
1.26
Union St. Florian
2.00

finishing

Union Perg+0.00on par
Union St. Florian+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Perg ↓

Union St. Florian →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Union Perg or draw
75%
Union Perg or Union St. Florian
77%
Draw or Union St. Florian
48%

Winning margin

Union Perg wins by 2+
29%
Union St. Florian wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Union Perg 1+ goals
84%
Union Perg 2+ goals
54%
Union Perg 3+ goals
28%
Union St. Florian 1+ goals
69%
Union St. Florian 2+ goals
33%
Union St. Florian 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Union Perg (draw refunded)
68%
Union St. Florian (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Perg at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.26 · 90 matches

Union St. Florian away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.00 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Perg attack 1.67 + Union St. Florian defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Union St. Florian attack 1.10 + Union Perg defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Union Perg scores more
52%
level
23%
Union St. Florian scores more
25%

Union Perg at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Union Perg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Union Perg vs Union St. Florian — Match Preview

Union Perg face Union St. Florian on April 25, 2020 in this Landesliga - Oberosterreich fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Union Perg host Union St. Florian at abd-Arena Perg.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.