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Union St. Florian vs St. Valentin — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Union St. Florian
Union St. Florian
FT
1 – 4
St. Valentin
St. Valentin
4/22/2022Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 23Sportpark St. Florian

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Union St. Florian46%
×Draw24%
St. Valentin30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union St. Florian
1.72
St. Valentin
1.36

Union St. Florian creates 26% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 73 away

creates per match

Union St. Florian
1.40
St. Valentin
1.40

allows per match

Union St. Florian
1.33
St. Valentin
2.04

finishing

Union St. Florian+0.00on par
St. Valentin+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union St. Florian ↓

St. Valentin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Union St. Florian or draw
70%
Union St. Florian or St. Valentin
76%
Draw or St. Valentin
54%

Winning margin

Union St. Florian wins by 2+
24%
St. Valentin wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Union St. Florian 1+ goals
82%
Union St. Florian 2+ goals
51%
Union St. Florian 3+ goals
25%
St. Valentin 1+ goals
74%
St. Valentin 2+ goals
39%
St. Valentin 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Union St. Florian (draw refunded)
60%
St. Valentin (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union St. Florian at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

St. Valentin away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.04 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union St. Florian attack 1.40 + St. Valentin defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.72

St. Valentin attack 1.40 + Union St. Florian defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Union St. Florian scores more
46%
level
24%
St. Valentin scores more
30%

Union St. Florian at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Union St. Florian will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union St. Florian vs St. Valentin

St. Valentin beat Union St. Florian 4-1 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on April 22, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark St. Florian in St. Florian.