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Union St. Florian vs Friedburg / Pöndorf — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Union St. Florian
Union St. Florian
CANC
15:00
Friedburg / Pöndorf
Friedburg / Pöndorf
5/2/2020Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 24Sportpark St. Florian

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Union St. Florian41%
×Draw23%
Friedburg / Pöndorf36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union St. Florian
1.71
Friedburg / Pöndorf
1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 89 away

creates per match

Union St. Florian
1.40
Friedburg / Pöndorf
1.85

allows per match

Union St. Florian
1.33
Friedburg / Pöndorf
2.03

finishing

Union St. Florian+0.00on par
Friedburg / Pöndorf+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union St. Florian ↓

Friedburg / Pöndorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Union St. Florian or draw
64%
Union St. Florian or Friedburg / Pöndorf
77%
Draw or Friedburg / Pöndorf
59%

Winning margin

Union St. Florian wins by 2+
21%
Friedburg / Pöndorf wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Union St. Florian 1+ goals
82%
Union St. Florian 2+ goals
51%
Union St. Florian 3+ goals
24%
Friedburg / Pöndorf 1+ goals
80%
Friedburg / Pöndorf 2+ goals
47%
Friedburg / Pöndorf 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Union St. Florian (draw refunded)
53%
Friedburg / Pöndorf (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union St. Florian at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

Friedburg / Pöndorf away — creates 1.85, concedes 2.03 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union St. Florian attack 1.40 + Friedburg / Pöndorf defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.71

Friedburg / Pöndorf attack 1.85 + Union St. Florian defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Union St. Florian scores more
41%
level
23%
Friedburg / Pöndorf scores more
36%

Union St. Florian at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Union St. Florian will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Union St. Florian host Friedburg / Pöndorf

May 2, 2020: Union St. Florian take on Friedburg / Pöndorf in Landesliga - Oberosterreich. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Union St. Florian host Friedburg / Pöndorf at Sportpark St. Florian.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.