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Union St. Florian vs Bad Schallerbach — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Union St. Florian
Union St. Florian
FT
2 – 2
Bad Schallerbach
Bad Schallerbach
10/29/2021Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 13Sportpark St. Florian

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Union St. Florian42%
×Draw24%
Bad Schallerbach34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union St. Florian
1.61
Bad Schallerbach
1.41

Union St. Florian creates 14% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 75 away

creates per match

Union St. Florian
1.40
Bad Schallerbach
1.48

allows per match

Union St. Florian
1.33
Bad Schallerbach
1.83

finishing

Union St. Florian+0.00on par
Bad Schallerbach+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union St. Florian ↓

Bad Schallerbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Union St. Florian or draw
66%
Union St. Florian or Bad Schallerbach
76%
Draw or Bad Schallerbach
58%

Winning margin

Union St. Florian wins by 2+
21%
Bad Schallerbach wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Union St. Florian 1+ goals
80%
Union St. Florian 2+ goals
48%
Union St. Florian 3+ goals
22%
Bad Schallerbach 1+ goals
76%
Bad Schallerbach 2+ goals
41%
Bad Schallerbach 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Union St. Florian (draw refunded)
56%
Bad Schallerbach (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union St. Florian at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

Bad Schallerbach away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.83 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union St. Florian attack 1.40 + Bad Schallerbach defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.61

Bad Schallerbach attack 1.48 + Union St. Florian defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Union St. Florian scores more
42%
level
24%
Bad Schallerbach scores more
34%

Union St. Florian at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Union St. Florian will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union St. Florian vs Bad Schallerbach

Union St. Florian and Bad Schallerbach drew 2-2 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on October 29, 2021.

The match was played at Sportpark St. Florian in St. Florian.