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Union Schafhausen vs Wegberg-Beeck — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Union Schafhausen
Union Schafhausen
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Wegberg-Beeck
Wegberg-Beeck
M. Peschel 89'
P. Wolf 65'
A. Tafa 86'
P. Ramm 72'
V. Zingel 25'
5/24/2025Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 27Sportplatz Im Kuhlert

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Union Schafhausen25%
×Draw23%
Wegberg-Beeck53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Schafhausen
1.23
Wegberg-Beeck
1.89

Wegberg-Beeck creates 54% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 44 away

creates per match

Union Schafhausen
0.97
Wegberg-Beeck
1.75

allows per match

Union Schafhausen
2.03
Wegberg-Beeck
1.50

finishing

Union Schafhausen+0.00on par
Wegberg-Beeck+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Schafhausen ↓

Wegberg-Beeck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Union Schafhausen or draw
47%
Union Schafhausen or Wegberg-Beeck
77%
Draw or Wegberg-Beeck
75%

Winning margin

Union Schafhausen wins by 2+
10%
Wegberg-Beeck wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Union Schafhausen 1+ goals
71%
Union Schafhausen 2+ goals
35%
Union Schafhausen 3+ goals
13%
Wegberg-Beeck 1+ goals
85%
Wegberg-Beeck 2+ goals
56%
Wegberg-Beeck 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Union Schafhausen (draw refunded)
32%
Wegberg-Beeck (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Schafhausen at home — creates 0.97, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

Wegberg-Beeck away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Schafhausen attack 0.97 + Wegberg-Beeck defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.23

Wegberg-Beeck attack 1.75 + Union Schafhausen defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Union Schafhausen scores more
25%
level
23%
Wegberg-Beeck scores more
53%

Wegberg-Beeck at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Wegberg-Beeck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
V. Zingel
65'
P. Wolf
72'
P. Ramm
86'
A. Tafa
89'
M. Peschel
90'
M. Hotopp
90'
M. Hotopp
90'
N. Demming
90'
N. Demming

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Mittelrhein: Union Schafhausen 2–3 Wegberg-Beeck

Wegberg-Beeck beat Union Schafhausen 3-2 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on May 24, 2025.

Goals: V. Zingel (25'), P. Wolf (65'), P. Ramm (72'), A. Tafa (86'), M. Peschel (89').

The match was played at Sportplatz Im Kuhlert in Heinsberg.