Union Schafhausen 1–2 Hürth: Result & Stats

Union Schafhausen

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Hürth

4/1/2024

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 17Sportplatz Im Kuhlert

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Union Schafhausen34%

×Draw23%

Hürth43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union SchafhausenExpected goals in this matchHürth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.72

Union Schafhausen

1.50

Hürth

1.72

Hürth creates 15% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 66 away

0.97

creates per match

1.41

2.03

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Union Schafhausen

0.97

Hürth

1.41

allows per match

Union Schafhausen

2.03

Hürth

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Schafhausen+0.00on par

Hürth+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Schafhausen ↓

Hürth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Union Schafhausen or draw

57%

Union Schafhausen or Hürth

77%

Draw or Hürth

66%

Winning margin

Union Schafhausen wins by 2+

16%

Hürth wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Union Schafhausen 1+ goals

78%

Union Schafhausen 2+ goals

44%

Union Schafhausen 3+ goals

19%

Hürth 1+ goals

82%

Hürth 2+ goals

51%

Hürth 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Union Schafhausen (draw refunded)

44%

Hürth (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Schafhausen at home — creates 0.97, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

Hürth away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.03 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Schafhausen attack 0.97 + Hürth defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.50

Hürth attack 1.41 + Union Schafhausen defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Union Schafhausen scores more

34%

level

23%

Hürth scores more

43%

Hürth at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hürth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff