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Union Schafhausen vs Bonner SC — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Union Schafhausen
Union Schafhausen
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Bonner SC
Bonner SC
10/29/2023Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 12Sportplatz Im Kuhlert

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Union Schafhausen17%
×Draw20%
Bonner SC63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Schafhausen
1.03
Bonner SC
2.17

Bonner SC creates 111% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 44 away

creates per match

Union Schafhausen
0.97
Bonner SC
2.30

allows per match

Union Schafhausen
2.03
Bonner SC
1.09

finishing

Union Schafhausen+0.00on par
Bonner SC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Schafhausen ↓

Bonner SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Union Schafhausen or draw
37%
Union Schafhausen or Bonner SC
80%
Draw or Bonner SC
83%

Winning margin

Union Schafhausen wins by 2+
6%
Bonner SC wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Union Schafhausen 1+ goals
64%
Union Schafhausen 2+ goals
28%
Union Schafhausen 3+ goals
9%
Bonner SC 1+ goals
89%
Bonner SC 2+ goals
64%
Bonner SC 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Union Schafhausen (draw refunded)
21%
Bonner SC (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Schafhausen at home — creates 0.97, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

Bonner SC away — creates 2.30, concedes 1.09 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Schafhausen attack 0.97 + Bonner SC defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.03

Bonner SC attack 2.30 + Union Schafhausen defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Union Schafhausen scores more
17%
level
20%
Bonner SC scores more
63%

Bonner SC at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Bonner SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Schafhausen vs Bonner SC

Bonner SC beat Union Schafhausen 4-0 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Im Kuhlert in Heinsberg.