Union Santa Fe 1–5 River Plate: Result & Stats

Union Santa Fe

FT

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

River Plate

M. Peralta 79'

J. Álvarez 90+4', 73'

A. Palavecino 87'

E. Fernández 59'

B. Romero 16'

6/19/2022

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 4Estadio 15 de Abril

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Union Santa Fe47%

×Draw30%

River Plate24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union Santa FeExpected goals in this matchRiver Plate

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.79

Union Santa Fe

1.23

River Plate

0.79

Union Santa Fe creates 56% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 8 away

1.32

creates per match

0.88

0.71

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Union Santa Fe

1.32

River Plate

0.88

allows per match

Union Santa Fe

0.71

River Plate

1.15

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Union Santa Fe-0.10scores less

River Plate-0.25scores less

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Santa Fe ↓

River Plate →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Union Santa Fe or draw

76%

Union Santa Fe or River Plate

70%

Draw or River Plate

53%

Winning margin

Union Santa Fe wins by 2+

21%

River Plate wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Union Santa Fe 1+ goals

71%

Union Santa Fe 2+ goals

35%

Union Santa Fe 3+ goals

13%

River Plate 1+ goals

55%

River Plate 2+ goals

19%

River Plate 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Union Santa Fe (draw refunded)

66%

River Plate (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Santa Fe at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.71 · 18 matches

River Plate away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.15 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Santa Fe attack 1.32 + River Plate defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.23

River Plate attack 0.88 + Union Santa Fe defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Union Santa Fe scores more

47%

level

30%

River Plate scores more

24%

Union Santa Fe at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Union Santa Fe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

J. Álvarez

River Plate · F

10.0

Match Events

16'

B. Romero↳ J. Álvarez

41'

Imanol Machuca

43'

Nicolás de la Cruz

45+1'

Enzo Pérez

46'

F. Gerometta← F. Vera

54'

Marcelo Herrera

59'

E. Fernández↳ J. Álvarez

62'

A. Palavecino← N. De La Cruz

66'

Mauro Luna Diale

71'

E. Cañete← M. Luna

72'

D. Juárez← I. Machuca

72'

L. Esquivel← K. Zenón

73'

J. Álvarez

74'

J. Quintero← B. Romero

74'

E. Mammana← M. Herrera

79'

M. Peralta↳ E. Cañete

81'

E. Barco← J. Paradela

87'

A. Palavecino↳ E. Barco

90'

M. Gallegos← E. Roldán

90+4'

J. Álvarez↳ J. Quintero

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UnionRiver

Overview

53%Possession47%

12Total Shots13

5Corners2

8Fouls16

Shots

12Total Shots13

3On Target7

5Off Target5

4Blocked1

8Inside Box9

4Outside Box4

Passing

53%Possession47%

406Total Passes381

275Accurate Passes271

68%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls16

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0