Union Santa Fe vs Mushuc Runa SC — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 6+ matches
Union Santa Fe31%
Mushuc Runa SC35%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Mushuc Runa SC creates 10% more chances
Season form · 11 home / 6 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under75
- Over25
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No66
- Yes34
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Union Santa Fe ↓
Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Union Santa Fe at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches
Mushuc Runa SC away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Union Santa Fe attack 1.00 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83
Mushuc Runa SC attack 1.17 + Union Santa Fe defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.91
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 35%?"
Mushuc Runa SC at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 35% does not mean "Mushuc Runa SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Union Santa Fe host Mushuc Runa SC on Wednesday, 14 May 2025 at 00:30. The match is part of the CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2019/2020 season.
Union Santa Fe 0 – 1 Mushuc Runa SC
Mushuc Runa SC beat Union Santa Fe 1-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 14, 2025.
Goals: E. Caicedo (45').
Union Santa Fe controlled possession (71%) and registered 26 shots to 8.
The match was played at Estadio 15 de Abril in Santa Fe de la Vera Cruz.