Union Santa Fe 4–1 Independ. Rivadavia

Union Santa Fe

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Independ. Rivadavia

M. Luna Diale 83'

L. Gamba 61'

F. Pardo 7'

J. Morales 3'

V. Ramis 45+2'

2/25/2024

League #1032 · 1st Phase - 7Estadio 15 de Abril

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Union Santa Fe58%

×Draw22%

Independ. Rivadavia20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union Santa FeExpected goals in this matchIndepend. Rivadavia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.00

Union Santa Fe

1.90

Independ. Rivadavia

1.00

Union Santa Fe creates 90% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

1.13

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Union Santa Fe

1.13

Independ. Rivadavia

1.00

allows per match

Union Santa Fe

1.00

Independ. Rivadavia

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Santa Fe+0.00on par

Independ. Rivadavia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Santa Fe ↓

Independ. Rivadavia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Union Santa Fe or draw

80%

Union Santa Fe or Independ. Rivadavia

78%

Draw or Independ. Rivadavia

42%

Winning margin

Union Santa Fe wins by 2+

34%

Independ. Rivadavia wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Union Santa Fe 1+ goals

85%

Union Santa Fe 2+ goals

56%

Union Santa Fe 3+ goals

29%

Independ. Rivadavia 1+ goals

63%

Independ. Rivadavia 2+ goals

26%

Independ. Rivadavia 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Union Santa Fe (draw refunded)

75%

Independ. Rivadavia (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Santa Fe at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Independ. Rivadavia away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Santa Fe attack 1.13 + Independ. Rivadavia defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.90

Independ. Rivadavia attack 1.00 + Union Santa Fe defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Union Santa Fe scores more

58%

level

22%

Independ. Rivadavia scores more

20%

Union Santa Fe at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Union Santa Fe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

M. Luna Diale

Union Santa Fe · M

7.7

Match Events

3'

J. Morales↳ M. Del Blanco

7'

34'

35'

42'

45+2'

46'

46'

46'

S. Zeballos← M. Ruíz Díaz

46'

T. Ostchega← E. Más

50'

T. Palacios← Ezequiel Ham

59'

C. Corvalan

59'

B. Pittón← M. Del Blanco

61'

L. Gamba

62'

A. Balboa← J. Morales

63'

67'

78'

81'

81'

81'

N. Orsini← N. Paz

83'

M. Luna Diale

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UnionIndepend.

Overview

52%Possession48%

20Total Shots6

7Corners6

12Fouls9

Shots

20Total Shots6

7On Target3

5Off Target2

8Blocked1

13Inside Box4

7Outside Box2

Passing

52%Possession48%

441Total Passes407

368Accurate Passes326

83%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls9

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

2Offsides2