Union Santa Fe 1–1 Huracan: Result & Stats

Union Santa Fe

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Huracan

M. Estigarribia 50'

H. Nervo 43'

8/24/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 6Estadio 15 de Abril

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Union Santa Fe38%

×Draw36%

Huracan27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union Santa FeExpected goals in this matchHuracan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.87

0.68

Union Santa Fe

0.87

Huracan

0.68

Union Santa Fe creates 28% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.03

creates per match

0.85

0.51

allows per match

0.71

creates per match

Union Santa Fe

1.03

Huracan

0.85

allows per match

Union Santa Fe

0.51

Huracan

0.71

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Union Santa Fe+0.14scores more

Huracan-0.05on par

Total goals

Under80
Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Santa Fe ↓

Huracan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–021%

0–114%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–15%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

79%21%1.5

46%54%2.5

20%80%3.5

7%93%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Union Santa Fe or draw

73%

Union Santa Fe or Huracan

64%

Draw or Huracan

62%

Winning margin

Union Santa Fe wins by 2+

13%

Huracan wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Union Santa Fe 1+ goals

58%

Union Santa Fe 2+ goals

22%

Union Santa Fe 3+ goals

6%

Huracan 1+ goals

49%

Huracan 2+ goals

15%

Huracan 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Union Santa Fe (draw refunded)

59%

Huracan (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

16%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Santa Fe at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.51 · 6 matches

Huracan away — creates 0.85, concedes 0.71 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Santa Fe attack 1.03 + Huracan defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.87

Huracan attack 0.85 + Union Santa Fe defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Union Santa Fe scores more

38%

level

36%

Huracan scores more

27%

Union Santa Fe at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Union Santa Fe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

H. Nervo

Huracan · D

7.9

Match Events

30'

30'

31'

31'

43'

H. Nervo↳ M. Miljevic

50'

M. Estigarribia↳ M. Del Blanco

56'

L. Gamba← C. Tarragona

67'

N. Palavecino← M. Martinez

73'

E. Ojeda← M. Miljevic

73'

E. Ramirez← L. Gimenez

74'

G. Alanis← J. Bisanz

77'

A. Solari← J. Palacios

77'

D. Diaz← M. Estigarribia

87'

N. Goitea← R. Cabral

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UnionHuracan

Overview

62%Possession38%

8Total Shots7

0.23Expected Goals (xG)0.44

5Corners1

19Fouls9

Shots

8Total Shots7

3On Target2

4Off Target5

1Blocked0

3Inside Box4

5Outside Box3

Passing

62%Possession38%

385Total Passes250

312Accurate Passes176

81%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

-0.10Goals Prevented-0.10

Discipline

19Fouls9

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

3Offsides1