Union Santa Fe 1–2 Gimnasia M.: Result & Stats

Union Santa Fe

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Gimnasia M.

B. Pittón 28'

N. Solís 88'

L. Silba 17'

4/18/2024

Copa Argentina · 1st RoundEstadio Eva Perón de Junín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Union Santa Fe35%

×Draw31%

Gimnasia M.34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union Santa FeExpected goals in this matchGimnasia M.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.00

Union Santa Fe

1.01

Gimnasia M.

1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

1.22

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Union Santa Fe

1.22

Gimnasia M.

1.00

allows per match

Union Santa Fe

1.00

Gimnasia M.

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Santa Fe+0.00on par

Gimnasia M.+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Santa Fe ↓

Gimnasia M. →

0–013%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Union Santa Fe or draw

66%

Union Santa Fe or Gimnasia M.

69%

Draw or Gimnasia M.

65%

Winning margin

Union Santa Fe wins by 2+

13%

Gimnasia M. wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Union Santa Fe 1+ goals

64%

Union Santa Fe 2+ goals

27%

Union Santa Fe 3+ goals

Gimnasia M. 1+ goals

63%

Gimnasia M. 2+ goals

26%

Gimnasia M. 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Union Santa Fe (draw refunded)

50%

Gimnasia M. (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Union Santa Fe at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Gimnasia M. away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Union Santa Fe attack 1.22 + Gimnasia M. defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.01

Gimnasia M. attack 1.00 + Union Santa Fe defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 35%?"

Union Santa Fe scores more

35%

level

31%

Gimnasia M. scores more

34%

Union Santa Fe at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Union Santa Fe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

28'

46'

56'

71'

J. Rodríguez← J. Vieyra

71'

L. Ciccolini← G. Salega

85'

M. Castro← L. Silba

88'

N. Solís

90'

J. Morales← B. Pittón

90'

A. Gutiérrez← N. Barboza

Union

Gimnasia

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Silba

Cardozo

Corvalán

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: C. González

46'▲E. Roldán←▼M. Pittón

56'▲N. Orsini←▼F. Pardo

90'▲J. Morales←▼B. Pittón

Union Santa Fe substitutes

RoldánOrsiniMoralesDóminaLudueñaVerdeTorrénCampisiProfiniRiveroBanegaFascendini

Manager: D. Alaniz

71'▲J. Rodríguez←▼J. Vieyra

71'▲L. Ciccolini←▼G. Salega

85'▲M. Castro←▼L. Silba

90'▲A. Gutiérrez←▼N. Barboza

Gimnasia M. substitutes

RodríguezCiccoliniCastroGutiérrezBindellaSpetaleAntonioCortezOjedaPadillaRecaldeRomano