Union Santa Fe 2–0 Gimnasia L.P.: Result & Stats

Union Santa Fe

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Gimnasia L.P.

B. Castrillón 72'

J. Domina 56'

6/4/2023

Liga Profesional Argentina · Round 19Estadio 15 de Abril

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Union Santa Fe47%

×Draw27%

Gimnasia L.P.26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union Santa FeExpected goals in this matchGimnasia L.P.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.95

Union Santa Fe

1.40

Gimnasia L.P.

0.95

Union Santa Fe creates 47% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 9 away

1.22

creates per match

1.18

0.73

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Union Santa Fe

1.22

Gimnasia L.P.

1.18

allows per match

Union Santa Fe

0.73

Gimnasia L.P.

1.58

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

Union Santa Fe-0.03on par

Gimnasia L.P.-0.18scores less

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Santa Fe ↓

Gimnasia L.P. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Union Santa Fe or draw

74%

Union Santa Fe or Gimnasia L.P.

73%

Draw or Gimnasia L.P.

53%

Winning margin

Union Santa Fe wins by 2+

23%

Gimnasia L.P. wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Union Santa Fe 1+ goals

75%

Union Santa Fe 2+ goals

41%

Union Santa Fe 3+ goals

17%

Gimnasia L.P. 1+ goals

61%

Gimnasia L.P. 2+ goals

25%

Gimnasia L.P. 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Union Santa Fe (draw refunded)

65%

Gimnasia L.P. (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Santa Fe at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.73 · 16 matches

Gimnasia L.P. away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.58 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Santa Fe attack 1.22 + Gimnasia L.P. defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.40

Gimnasia L.P. attack 1.18 + Union Santa Fe defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Union Santa Fe scores more

47%

level

27%

Gimnasia L.P. scores more

26%

Union Santa Fe at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Union Santa Fe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77

S. Mele

Union Santa Fe · G

7.6

Match Events

12'

37'

46'

52'

55'

56'

62'

I. Mammini← F. Soldano

62'

F. Torres← A. Bolívar

69'

B. Castrillón← J. Domina

70'

Franco Calderón

72'

B. Castrillón↳ M. Luna

75'

S. Cocimano← E. Ramírez

76'

J. Mosqueira← E. Roldán

77'

J. Ludueña← N. Paz

88'

E. Cañete← M. Luna

88'

V. Venetucci← I. Machuca

90+1'

Franco Torres

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UnionGimnasia

Overview

45%Possession55%

11Total Shots9

6Corners8

16Fouls8

Shots

11Total Shots9

6On Target1

4Off Target6

1Blocked2

6Inside Box6

5Outside Box3

Passing

45%Possession55%

285Total Passes346

195Accurate Passes254

68%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls8

3Yellow Cards3