Union Santa Fe 1–1 Dock Sud: Result & Stats

Union Santa Fe

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Dock Sud

3/5/2020

Copa Argentina · 1st RoundEstadio Nuevo Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Union Santa Fe67%

×Draw20%

Dock Sud14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union Santa FeExpected goals in this matchDock Sud

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

0.83

Union Santa Fe

2.11

Dock Sud

0.83

Union Santa Fe creates 154% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

1.22

creates per match

0.67

1.00

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Union Santa Fe

1.22

Dock Sud

0.67

allows per match

Union Santa Fe

1.00

Dock Sud

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Santa Fe+0.00on par

Dock Sud+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Santa Fe ↓

Dock Sud →

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Union Santa Fe or draw

86%

Union Santa Fe or Dock Sud

80%

Draw or Dock Sud

33%

Winning margin

Union Santa Fe wins by 2+

42%

Dock Sud wins by 2+

Team goals

Union Santa Fe 1+ goals

88%

Union Santa Fe 2+ goals

62%

Union Santa Fe 3+ goals

35%

Dock Sud 1+ goals

56%

Dock Sud 2+ goals

20%

Dock Sud 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Union Santa Fe (draw refunded)

83%

Dock Sud (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Union Santa Fe at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Dock Sud away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Union Santa Fe attack 1.22 + Dock Sud defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.11

Dock Sud attack 0.67 + Union Santa Fe defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 67%?"

Union Santa Fe scores more

67%

level

20%

Dock Sud scores more

14%

Union Santa Fe at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Union Santa Fe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff