Union Santa Fe 3–1 Colegiales: Result & Stats

Union Santa Fe

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Colegiales

L. Verde 90'

M. Estigarribia 53'

J. Domina 38'

T. Cardozo 14' (OG)

3/5/2025

Copa Argentina · 1st RoundEstadio Único de San Nicolás

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Union Santa Fe56%

×Draw25%

Colegiales19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union Santa FeExpected goals in this matchColegiales

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.83

Union Santa Fe

1.61

Colegiales

0.83

Union Santa Fe creates 94% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

1.22

creates per match

0.67

1.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Union Santa Fe

1.22

Colegiales

0.67

allows per match

Union Santa Fe

1.00

Colegiales

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Santa Fe+0.00on par

Colegiales+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Santa Fe ↓

Colegiales →

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Union Santa Fe or draw

81%

Union Santa Fe or Colegiales

75%

Draw or Colegiales

44%

Winning margin

Union Santa Fe wins by 2+

30%

Colegiales wins by 2+

Team goals

Union Santa Fe 1+ goals

80%

Union Santa Fe 2+ goals

48%

Union Santa Fe 3+ goals

22%

Colegiales 1+ goals

56%

Colegiales 2+ goals

20%

Colegiales 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Union Santa Fe (draw refunded)

74%

Colegiales (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Union Santa Fe at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Colegiales away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Union Santa Fe attack 1.22 + Colegiales defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.61

Colegiales attack 0.67 + Union Santa Fe defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Union Santa Fe scores more

56%

level

25%

Colegiales scores more

19%

Union Santa Fe at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Union Santa Fe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

T. CardozoOwn goal

38'

J. Domina

53'

M. Estigarribia

90'

L. Verde

Union

Colegiales

🥅

⚽

⚽

Manager: Leonardo Carol Madelón

Union Santa Fe substitutes

16Martínez18Gamba10Verde35Vargas21Colazo20Palacios1Tagliamonte23Arturia29Díaz32Paz14Pittón

Manager: Leonardo Carlos Fernández

Colegiales substitutes

18Camargo19Villalba16Ortigoza15Marín17Almada14Massimo20Giménez23Robaldo13Silguero21Torres22Marín12Rojas